Recently, the European Federation for Transport and Environment asked IHS Markit to analyze the automobile market in the EU and predict what the future for electric cars will be like in the near term. The analysis found that manufacturers plan to triple the number of models with plugs by the end of 2021 — from 60 today to 210 — just eighteen months from now. Of those, 92 will be battery electric and 118 will be plug-in hybrids.fiber optic patch cord multimode
According to a report by the BBC, if that prediction holds true, 22% of vehicles produced and sold in the EU could have a plug by 2025. If this happens, that would make it possible for car makers to easily meet the 95 grams per kilometer carbon dioxide emissions goal required by EU regulations by 2025.
“Thanks to the EU car CO2 standards, Europe is about to see a wave of new, longer range, and more affordable electric cars hit the market,” said Lucien Mathieu, a transport and e-mobility analyst at T&E. “That is good news, but the job is not yet done. We need governments to help roll out electric vehicle charging at home and at work, and we need changes to car taxation to make electric cars even more attractive than polluting diesel, petrol or poor plug-in hybrid vehicles.”
The Continent will need one more thing to make the IHS Markit prediction a reality — a larger supply of batteries to power all those electric cars. Green Tech Media this week is featuring a report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance that says lithium ion battery production in Europe will top 198 gigawatt-hours by 2023 — up dramatically from 18 gigawatt-hours today. “Europe is moving away from being a laggard to committing serious amounts of capital and state support,” according to Logan Goldie-Scot, head of energy storage at BNEF.
That will move Europe past the United States in total battery production, most of which comes from Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 in Nevada. But it will pale in comparison to the 800 gigawatt-hours per year Chinese manufacturers are expected to produce by 2023 — two thirds of the global total of 1.2 terawatt-hours.
What worries European leaders is that much of the production capacity on the Continent will be owned by Chinese companies. In a report published in April, the European Commission warned: “The EU’s high dependency on battery cell imports could expose industry to high costs and risks in the supply chain and undermine the automotive industry’s ability to compete with foreign competitors.”